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Wall Street Weighs In.

The Wall Street Journal, that is.  (Opinion section.)   A piece on economics of HRS.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703389004575033672230734364.html?mod=WSJ_business_IndustryNews_DLW

 

Summary: he's agin' it.  Some of the assumptions about the subsidy level of some other means of transport suggest the message isn't getting through to everyone.


Posted 02-01-2010 1:27 PM by anmccaff

Comments

Larry Kaufman wrote re: Wall Street Weighs In.
on 02-01-2010 6:09 PM

Wendell Cox has been making the same argument in any paper that will publish his screed.  He may be right, but I would prefer that he come at the issue from a position based on economics and not on libertarian dogma as he does.  Cox definitely does not represent Wall Street, by the way.  He's with a libertarian think tank located somewhere in the heartland.

anmccaff wrote re: Wall Street Weighs In.
on 02-01-2010 7:29 PM

LK>"Wendell Cox has been making the same argument in any paper that will publish his screed.

Yup.  I thought it interesting that they put it now; it may even mean the opposite of what it looks like, picking a spokesman whose position is, as you say, predictable on ideology alone, as opposed to someone putting up real numbers, is sometimes a way to provide "balance" without actually favoring that side.

LK>"He may be right, but I would prefer that he come at the issue from a position based on economics and not on libertarian dogma as he does.  Cox definitely does not represent Wall Street, by the way.  He's with a libertarian think tank located somewhere in the heartland."

Yeah, that's why the stepped entry format.  "Wall Street says."  "Well, the Wall Street Journal does."  "Well, in the opinion section, which is sometimes a glorified letter to the editor."  I mighta word-smithed it a little better, I guess.

I still think, though, that the fact that they could print something underpinned with so many questionable facts shows that the word isn't entirely out about what some of the real costs of different ways of moving things and people are.

Larry Kaufman wrote re: Wall Street Weighs In.
on 02-02-2010 10:31 AM

The Wall Street Journal, under Bancroft family control, always was conservative bordering on libertarian in its opinion section.  I can add that in the news pages it was and still is one of the best newspapers published in the U.S.  Since the sale to Rupert Murdoch, the WSJ has crossed the border and now is almost extreme in its strident advocacy of libertarian causes.

I think you give the WSJ too much credit, anmccaff, when you suggest that it perhaps is trying to present some "balance."  The WSJ is about as subtle as a sledge hammer.  Whether I agree with or not is immaterial.  I at least respect that it says what it means and at times that's refreshing.  By the way, there is just enough fact in Cox's screed that some people will sound like Rush Limbaugh ditto-heads in their zeal to say: Right on, Wendell, right on."  I won't be in that claque.

Bill_Freeto wrote re: Wall Street Weighs In.
on 02-02-2010 8:02 PM

I'm curious.

Do any of the readers of this blog have any substantive criticisms of the article?

In essence, I don't--though the author really didn't touch on demographics, which I view as the underlying reason why passenger rail (conventional or HSR) has limited applicability in the US.

anmccaff wrote re: Wall Street Weighs In.
on 02-03-2010 12:41 AM

BF>"I'm curious.

Do any of the readers of this blog have any substantive criticisms of the article?"

Yes. it treats the question of potential rail subsidies as a stand-alone, ignoring the fact that the competition may have received a greater level of effective subsidy over time.   Other aspects of transportation aren't expected to pay their way; about the only segment that does is passenger cars and light freight on the Interstates, and possibly busses and some express services as well.

Part of the problem isn't that rail is inefficient, it's that its accounting is a little more honest.

It also ignore real public policy issues.  Without going as far as Mr. Willis  ("Railwayist"), it's possible that creating a transportation system less dependent on imported energy might be cheaper and safer in the long term, for one example.  It costs a lot of money these days to keep flying safe...very little of which is born by the airlines or passengers.  (Though God knows they both might prefer paying for it if it got rid of the TSA.)

AMTRAK blew a tremendous opportunity after 9/11; the should have put up a ad campaign that showed pictures of old-west desperadoes, with the voice over saying "America's railroads faced the James Gang.  Your pocketknife doesn't scare -us-."

(Yeah, I know.  They don't control their own budget, so it wasn't possible to increase capacity even where it was feasible.)

BF>"In essence, I don't--though the author really didn't touch on demographics, which I view as the underlying reason why passenger rail (conventional or HSR) has limited applicability in the US."

Not so much demographics as demographics and politics combined.

A US nationally funded passenger rail system has to face the unpleasant reality that only about 1/4 of the states now have the settlement patterns that make large-scale passenger rail feasible, but you have to get funding from those states which do not.

Log rolling can be very expensive.

Were I King, I think I'd concentrate HSR on the localities where rail has a fighting chance economically, gathering the public funding locally, since that's where any positive externalities are going to be felt.  Having New York, Connecticut, and Massachusetts kick in for their end of the NEC directly makes more sense that routing the money through Washington.

I ain't King yet, though, and don't expect the appointment any time soon, so we are stuck with whatever the White House and Congress can put together.

Larry Kaufman wrote re: Wall Street Weighs In.
on 02-03-2010 12:31 PM

Wow!  Well said, anmccaff.  You have saved me the effort of posting a comment in response to Bill Freeto's post.  Yes, I do have criticism of the article.  I consider it dishonest.  Cox offers no data to support his anti-HSR rant, just the usual libertarian rhetoric.  Nothing wrong with libertarian rhetoric, of course, as long as you recognize it for what it is.  At the risk of being repetitive, anmccaff makes a very strong point when he comments about railroads being forced to compete with subsidized modes.  

Some of you may have missed the latest from the DOT budget introduced Monday.  Now, the freight railroads are supposed to pony up some $50 million annually to pay for FRA safety inspections.  Anyone know if airlines pay FAA for check rides?  Ever see a FMCSA inspector riding in the cab of an 18-wheeler?  FRA safety inspections are for the purpose of ensuring that railroads comply with rules and regulations.  There certainly is no real, measurable benefit to the railroads.  Talk about unfunded mandates, this is another $50 million the railroads won't have to put into their planned maintenance - which just might contribute to rail safety.

A final thought on "Wall Street Weighs In."  Whether the society provides HSR is a political decision.  That's why we have a representative form of government, so the society, through its elected representatives, can decide how much, if any, HSR it wishes to pay for.  Cox and a few of his acolytes remind me of children having a tantrum.  Just stamp your feet and shout no.  Even where Cox is right, he comes at the issue from an ideology and not from a rational discussion of public policy.

Bill_Freeto wrote re: Wall Street Weighs In.
on 02-03-2010 12:46 PM

Anmcaff:

You write: "Yes. it treats the question of potential rail subsidies as a stand-alone, ignoring the fact that the competition may have received a greater level of effective subsidy over time.   Other aspects of transportation aren't expected to pay their way; about the only segment that does is passenger cars and light freight on the Interstates, and possibly busses and some express services as well."

Given that the actual (not potential) subsidies are for intercity passenger services, any effective subsidies for trucks is not at issue.  Passenger rail advocates are mostly hoping to take passenger cars off the highways.  And if it's your position that passenger cars pay by and large pay their way, it would seem that you are actually in agreement with the article on that point.

For the sake of argument, let's say that air travel doesn't "pay its way."  If that's the case, there are two basic alternatives: 1) reduce or eliminate the effective subsidies for air, enabling alternative modes to compete on an equal footing, or 2) pile subsidies upon subsidies by throwing money at passenger rail.  Passenger rail advocates always seem to take the latter approach.  But if passenger rail is so superior to the other modes on its own merits, why not work instead to eliminate the exisiting governmental interventions dislocating the market?

But I would question the extent to which passenger air travel is truly subsidized.

You mention security.  Two issues there: 1)security could be handled much more effectively at lower cost if the Feds were not involved and the airlines were truly free to handle it as they see fit.  (Think profiling.)  2) if and when passenger rail increases, it will also face the same security issues--terrorists will start to target the trains, both as passengers and along the right of way.  Thus, the costs/subsidies of security for airlines will also be a factor for passenger trains.

Bill_Freeto wrote re: Wall Street Weighs In.
on 02-03-2010 2:36 PM

To paraphrase one of your statements, Larry, I would say instead that "[many/most passenger rail advocates] remind me of children having a tantrum. Just stamp your feet and shout [“I want it, I want it, I WANT it!!]" (In this analogy, the kid saying "no" is the one who doesn't take kindly to the other bully trying to steal his toys.)

Just look at how frequently some of them resort to ad hominem arguments and emotionally charged smear labels when anyone dares to question the value, necessity, or legitimacy of their grand plans.

Larry Kaufman wrote re: Wall Street Weighs In.
on 02-03-2010 2:36 PM

anmccaff is perfectly capable of responding for himself if he chooses.  Bill Freeto says some provocative things in what may be an ongoing discussion.  One can hope.  Taking the last thing first, security, a refresher of the memory.  Prior to 9/11, there was screening and security at all airports.  It was, in fact, paid for by the airlines, which contracted with the lowest priced provider.  The 19 hijackers on 9/11 sailed right through metal detectors and other then-current screening systems at Newark, Boston, and I think JFK.  TSA is no bargain, but at least its screening is not provided by the low-priced contractor.

As for the economics of passenger service, repeating, repeating, passenger service doesn't make money anyplace in the world.  Only in Japan and France does it cover more than operating expense.  Bill Free-to is correct that passenger service is not competitive with trucks.  It really isn't competing with airplanes, either, but does compete with the private automobile.  That said, the real economic analysis has to get to studies of peak-hour traffic, complete costs of alternatives, and things like that.  HSR never will replace the automobile.  It may lessen highway congestion to a degree - a degree that might change the economics of building more beltways, more lanes, etc.  I don't know, but I do know that there are legitimate cost-benefit studies that can be done and that factor in existing tax structures, effective subsidies, etc.  I only urge one and all to try to remain rational and not condemn HSR from a purely ideological position.  Those of us who are of a certain age, as the expression goes, can remember that the original Metroliner contract with the old PRR called for 150 mph capability and 2 1/2 hours between NY and DC.  It achieved the speed and slightly exceeded the time.  PRR merged with NYC, it then went broke, and was succeeded by Conrail.  Meanwhile, the Metroliner equipment got old, suffered poor maintenance; the roadbed was badly maintained and the Metroliner got slower and slower.  No one will ever know what the service might have been.  If good enough, perhaps more people would have accepted higher fares.  I'm not arguing that it ever would have earned a profit, but the societal cost almost certainly would have been lower and the benefit-cost ratio more acceptable.

anmccaff wrote re: Wall Street Weighs In.
on 02-05-2010 8:30 PM

ANM>>"Yes. it treats the question of potential rail subsidies as a stand-alone, ignoring the fact that the competition may have received a greater level of effective subsidy over time.   Other aspects of transportation aren't expected to pay their way; about the only segment that does is passenger cars and light freight on the Interstates, and possibly buses and some express services as well."

BF>"Given that the actual (not potential) subsidies are for intercity passenger services, any effective subsidies for trucks is not at issue."

I disagree there.  The subsidy for trucking did in a lot of high(er) speed rail.  Passenger traffic was hurting partly because express was hurting and mail was hurting.

BF>Passenger rail advocates are mostly hoping to take passenger cars off the highways.  And if it's your position that passenger cars pay by and large pay their way, it would seem that you are actually in agreement with the article on that point.

No, only on the narrow point that cars -all cars-, are taxed relatively heavily to fund interstates, whether they use 'em or not.  Trucks get, roughly, a free ride, despite what the stickers they liked to put on thie mudflaps.

BF>For the sake of argument, let's say that air travel doesn't "pay its way."

No "sake of argument" about it.  The aviation industry and general aviation pay only about 2/3 of the cost of running the ATC system and other FAA tasks, and only one-third of the costs of security.  They are running, viewed as a system, over 10% in the hole.  Before the TSA, it was about 5%.  That's not counting low-to-no cost transfers of federal property to airports, deduct ability of municipal bonds, the "free" pilot training back during the draft era, and subsidies in all but name on some aircraft production facilities (free use of a GOCO production line off shift goes a long way.)

BF>"If that's the case, there are two basic alternatives: 1) reduce or eliminate the effective subsidies for air, enabling alternative modes to compete on an equal footing, or 2) pile subsidies upon subsidies by throwing money at passenger rail. "

No argument here that matching subsidies is dangerous, stupid, and expensive, despite the fact that a lot of Washingington (CD) likes it.

It may, however, be the best the poor things can do.

BF>Passenger rail advocates always seem to take the latter approach.  But if passenger rail is so superior to the other modes on its own merits, why not work instead to eliminate the exisiting governmental interventions dislocating the market?

Because there are business (and other) interests who would put a good deal of effort into defending the way things are, and a lot less into fighting an expansion of passenger rail.

anmccaff wrote re: Wall Street Weighs In.
on 02-05-2010 8:43 PM

BF>"But I would question the extent to which passenger air travel is truly subsidized."

You shouldn't.  On direct costs alone, they are eating up about 5 billion more than they take in.

BF>You mention security.  Two issues there: 1)security could be handled much more effectively at lower cost if the Feds were not involved and the airlines were truly free to handle it as they see fit.

They were once.  I'm not sure many people liked the final results, but I suppose it did have an upside.  Office vacancies would drop, you get rid of enough skyscrapers.

BF>"(Think profiling.)"

...and?

BF>"2) if and when passenger rail increases, it will also face the same security issues--terrorists will start to target the trains, both as passengers and along the right of way."

As soon as we have to wory about trains doubling their speed and increasing their altitude by a few miles, then a train will pose the same risks as an aircraft.

Oh, wait.  We'd also have to make the train a hell of a lot less tough, too.   And we'd have to give it internal control of all the switches on it its route.

The fixed route poses some problems, but railroaders are notorious for overbuilding, and dropping an overpass or putting out an abutment isn't the trivial thing that damaging a passenger aircraft can be.

BF>"Thus, the costs/subsidies of security for airlines will also be a factor for passenger trains."

But nowhere on the same scale, even with the all-jobs-iz-good mindset that infects some Federal programs.

Larry Kaufman wrote re: Wall Street Weighs In.
on 02-06-2010 3:05 PM

This discussion truly points up the results of not having a comprehensive national transportation policy.  Truckers and their shipper customers want to increase their maximum gross vehicle weight allowed on federal-aid highways from the current 80,000 lb. to 97,000 lb -- WITH NO INCREASE IN USER CHARGES AND FEES! despite the fact that they already are subsidized by not paying their allocable share of highway construction and maintenance costs.  And while discussing cross subsidies, let's remember that autos don't show up so well, either.  Yes, they pay an "allocable" share, but the fact is that all highway funding sources don't come anywhere close to paying what is needed.  Our Tea Party and libertarian friends, of course, don't think anyone should pay anything for government services.  Hell, I'd expect railroads to support that idiotic approach; eliminate highway spending and the railroads and their private rights-of-way will be the only functioning transportation in our society.

Also, let's get over the myth that the airlines would handle security better than the government.  TSA may be the poster child for dysfunctional government agencies, but the airlines did handle security prior to 9/11 - and they really f****d that one up, didn't they?  

Passenger rail subsidies?  anmccaff has it right that losses of mail and express to trucks stripped the passenger trains of the revenue necessary to keep them in business.  Passengers never paid enough in fares to sustain the service.  And when the Penn Central bankruptcy scared the hell out of the Congress, there were a few options: subsidize the railroads; nationalize passenger service; and let the whole thing go.  The public (your remember them, don'y you?) made it clear it wanted passenger trains.  Conress wouldn't subsidize the railroads because they had been pilloried and cast as the bad guys abandoning trains in the first place, so that was politically undoable.  That left nationalization, and the Nixon Administration simply couldn't deal with that, so Amtrak was created as an artificial "income-based solution."  Congress then underfunded Amtrak for the past 40 years and now we get to listen to rants from our libertarian friends about Amtrak sucking billions of tax dollars, etc.  The entire NE Corridor could have been rebuilt and handling high speed operations for under $1 billion back in 1971.  The money wasn't provided and now we're looking at something in the neighborhood of $10 billion to do the Corridor properly.  I doubt if the freight railroads would take passenger service back now, even if you said jpretty please with sugar on it.

rockerpgh wrote re: Wall Street Weighs In.
on 02-15-2010 12:56 PM

Automobile travel cost around $9000 annually per household. This may be a private rather than a public subsidy, but it is a subsidy nevertheless. (Transportation is not free.) In a region of, say, one million households, that's $9 billion annual cost for household-related transportation.

Larry Kaufman wrote re: Wall Street Weighs In.
on 02-15-2010 2:12 PM

Sorry, but I don't believe the cost of operating a private automobile is subsidized.  Yes, it is a cost, but it only is supbsidized if someone else is paying for it.  As long as the motorist pays the fees and taxes, etc., the $9,000 annual cost is just that - a cost. Federal Highway Administration and other studies conclude that private automobiles pay their allocable share of highway construction and maintenance costs, so where is the subsidy?   Big trucks receive a subsidy because they do not pay their allocable share of highway construction and maintenance costs.  We all have seen the stickers on the backs of 18-wheeler combinations that say: This vehicle paid $6,000 in highway taxes last year."  You never have seen one that also says" and used $10,000 worth of highways last year."  Airlines receive a subsidy from taxpayers because they do not pay the entire cost of the air traffic control system or of the construction and operation of many airports.